Nick Hodge's Solar Energy 101, Solar Power primer

Props to Nick and all over at Energy & Capital for their consistent insights into global energy and resource trends. Here's an excellent article that originally appeared on the Energy & Capital website, and in Nick's newsletter.

Solar Power for Dummies

By Nick Hodge | Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

The headlines say it all...

Total (NYSE: TOT) Pays $1.4 Billion for Stake in SunPower

Army/Marines Charge Critical Equipment With Solar Panels

Google Invests $280 Million in SolarCity

Solar Market Tops $70 Billion in 2010

In only a few years' time, the solar market has gone from “That stuff'll never work” to a billion-dollar acquisition target of the biggest oil companies in the world.

At the turn of the century the world only had 1.4 gigawatts (GWs) of installed solar capacity.

By the end of last year 40.7 GW had been installed – a growth of 2,752%.

Oil didn't do that. Coal didn't do that. Nuclear didn't do that.

Most of the growth has come from Europe – particularly Germany with 17 GW – which boasts over 75% of all installed solar worldwide.

Their head start can be attributed to attractive policies the U.S. failed to embrace. But falling prices, as you'll soon see, will mean the spread and mass adoption of solar in the next few years.

Reaching Scale

All technologies are more expensive in the beginning.

I paid $1,300 for a 42” flatscreen TV in 2006. You can get one today for $450.

Solar is the same way.

Panels cost $60 per watt in the mid 1970s. Today the price is down to $1.50 per watt.


Mass production reduces solar energy costs

Just like similar industries – circuit boards, for example – costs will continue to fall with volume. For every doubling of solar manufacturing capacity, costs fall about 20%.

In some markets solar is already cheaper than grid electricity. And as more and more solar is installed, the costs will only fall further.

We're at a point now where solar installations are growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 65%.

Slightly more than 17 GWs were installed last year alone.

And as SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWRA) founder and chief technology officer Tom Dinwoodie (the man who just sold a majority stake of his company to Total for $1.4 billion) puts it:

That 17 gigawatts installed in 2010 is the equivalent of 17 nuclear power plants -- manufactured, shipped, and installed in one year. It can take decades just to install a nuclear plant. Think about that. I heard Bill Gates recently call solar "cute." Well, that's 17 gigawatts of "cute" adding up at an astonishing pace.

We'll still need nuclear baseload power to be sure. The point here is twofold.

Solar is being installed on a nuclear scale but much faster.

We've reached the point where increased installation rates and falling prices are feeding off each other.



Forecasts for Solar Power Growth

Between now and 2020, solar installations will double almost three times. Check out how that looks graphically:

Global Installed Solar Capacity 2000-2020

Germany will continue to dominate the market for the next few years, with the U.S. expected to come on strong in the second half of the decade.

China, Italy, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Spain are other countries to watch for coming installation growth.

But, at least as it stands right now, there's only one country to watch for when it comes to the actual production of solar equipment – not just the installation.


Solar Energy Industry - Global Leaders

In the early oughts Germany was by far the solar production leader. But as always happens in the manufacturing industry, China was quick to enter and dominate the game.

Though Europe is still the installation leader, China owns a majority of the production – as much as 60% by some estimates.

And for the first time last year, half of the largest solar companies in the world were Chinese. Though the list may vary slightly depending on the source, here's the current list along with 2010 shipments:

Suntech (NYSE: STP), 1,572 MW

JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO), 1,464 MW

First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)

Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), 1,062

Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL), 1,057

Motech (TAIWAN: 6244), 924 MW

Q-Cell (XETRA: QCE), 907 MW

Gintech (TAIWAN: 3514), 827 MW

Sharp (Other OTC: SHCAY), 774 MW

Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ), 588 MW

I know I've thrown a lot at you today, but a thorough solar update was long overdue. And in addition to future editorial and our paid services, this should serve as a good base for anyone looking to start investing in solar.

For more information, I've just recorded a short white-board video about materials of the future. It covers new solar materials that'll be used in the next few years, as well as new types of battery and rare earth technologies.

We'll start posting videos like this once a week to help you better capitalize on the topics we cover in daily e-letters.

Call it like you see it,


Nick

Scientists in Spain creating eco-oil from algae

Spanish BioFuel Systems company brewing future fuel

By Virginie Grognou | AFP News

In a forest of tubes eight metres high in eastern Spain scientists hope they have found the fuel of tomorrow: bio-oil produced with algae mixed with carbon dioxide from a factory.

Almost 400 of the green tubes, filled with millions of microscopic algae, cover a plain near the city of Alicante, next to a cement works from which the C02 is captured and transported via a pipeline to the "blue petroleum" factory.

The project, which is still experimental, has been developed over the past five years by Spanish and French researchers at the small Bio Fuel Systems (BFS) company.

At a time when companies are redoubling their efforts to find alternative energy sources, the idea is to reproduce and speed up a process which has taken millions of years and which has led to the production of fossil fuels.

"We are trying to simulate the conditions which existed millions of years ago, when the phytoplankton was transformed into oil," said engineer Eloy Chapuli. "In this way, we obtain oil that is the same as oil today."

The microalgae reproduces at high speed in the tubes by photosynthesis and from the CO2 released from the cement factory. Every day some of this highly concentrated liquid is extracted and filtered to produce a biomass that is turned into bio-oil. The other great advantage of the system is that it is a depollutant -- it absorbs the C02 which would otherwise be released into the atmosphere.

"It's ecological oil," said the founder and chairman of BFS, French engineer Bernard Stroiazzo-Mougin, who worked in oil fields in the Middle East before coming to Spain.
"We need another five to 10 years before industrial production can start," said Stroiazzo-Mougin, who hopes to be able to develop another such project on the Portuguese island of Madeira.

"In a unit that covers 50 square kilometres, which is not something enormous, in barren regions of southern Spain, we could produce about 1.25 million barrels per day," or almost as much as the daily export of oil from Iraq, he said.

BFS, a private company, hopes to negotiate "with several countries to obtain subsidies for the installation of artificial oil fields," he said.
Other similar projects being studied in other parts of the world.

In Germany, the Swedish energy group Vattenfall last year launched a pilot project in which algae is used to absorb carbon dioxide from a coal-fired power plant. US oil giant ExxonMobil plans to invest up to $600 million in research on oil produced from algae.

Companies, in particular those in the aeronautic sector, have shown keen interest in this research, hoping to find a replacement for classic oil.

Source: Ca.News.Yahoo.com